UKIP Uncovered

UKIP Uncovered
What motivates the leaders of the United Kingdom Independence Party?

Friday, May 28, 2004

FT Scrapes the Barrel for Consolation

The fanatically federalist Financial Times desperately casts around for a scrap of comfort from UKIP's recent surge in the Opinion Polls. In spite of clearly realising all the positives now running in favour of Eurorealism since Robert Kilroy-Silk's bursting upon the scene, in an article this morning linked here, they conclude that in the long run the federalist cause might be somehow helped by his involvement, as it will put the spotlight on UKIP's policy of withdrawal. (Like many blinded by the myth of Euro-federalism they cannot perceive what is obvious to the ordinary man on the street - the fact that the EU is already disintegrating before our very eyes.)

The business paper talks of the desirability of having the referendum debate concentrate on withdrawal and that UKIP is thereby fitting in with the strategy of Blair and the government. Federalists now imagine Howard's version of resistance in just not signing up for the Constitution will be harder to beat in the referendum campaign. To counter that argument I would say that firstly: the rate of collapse within the EU now makes any referendum look increasingly less likely with every passing day and secondly: the consequences of the now essential budgetary restrictions made necessary by the euro induced recession on the main economies will show the EU as something that will make continuation a case impossible to sensibly argue. One business paper at least foresees the real severity and consequences of the difficulties ahead and we commend this article Radical Measures in The Prague Post which is linked from here and concludes:

Overly tight fiscal and monetary policies have nearly paralyzed the economies of Germany, France and Italy. Thus, EU generosity is in short supply. The Dutch finance minister's opposition to sharing the 2004 EU budget surplus with the 10 new members is one example of the new miserliness of the rich. In addition, there's an ominous possibility that the Maastricht budget deficit rules will be applied to the accession countries immediately.

In short, a radical reformulation of macro-policy in the core eurozone countries is urgently required if the EU-15 and the 10 accession countries are to prosper together.

A radical reformulation it is quite impossible to see being undertaken by the present crop of European leaders, who choose to close their eyes to harsh economic reality and prefer instead to exist in the kind of fantasy world of fables spun by the likes of the FT.

The lack of economic analysis and pure political propaganda of the Financial Times article can be quickly discerned when set against the lucidity and directness of that from Prague. Our Post immediately above this makes my views on the FT argument quite clear and to re-emphasise the weakness of their logic, quoted below is the FT's own reporting of the positives now working in Kilroy's, UKIP's and the anti-EU movement's favour:

An important question in these European elections, therefore, is whether the UKIP threatens to crowd out the comparatively moderate Tory voice on Europe. There are three indications it will.

First, Mr Kilroy-Silk's media skills give the UKIP a far higher profile than it had at the European elections in 1999 when it won three seats in the European parliament with 7 per cent of the national vote.

Second, the party has a huge pool of campaign cash at its disposal. The UKIP had donor income of £250,000 in the first three months of this year and there are reports that it has since received more than £1m from Paul Sykes, the Yorkshire businessman.

Third, the UKIP has had good polling data this week. According to a YouGov poll in The Daily Telegraph, the UKIP is on 18 points, a level that puts it ahead of the Liberal Democrats and could see it winning more than a dozen seats in the proportional representation system that operates in the European elections.

posted by Martin |5:56 AM